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A second successful Pokémon Go Ex Raid

Posted on: January 29, 2018

The gym badge after an Ex Raid.

Today I reflect on another successful Pokémon Go Exclusive Raid I had last week.

This was my second in about a fortnight. I combine what I wrote about moving from data to information and my resolve from the first raid.

It took only a few weeks for talented individuals to crowdsource user data, suggest patterns, and provide timely information. For example, there is now at least one source on how to increase your chances of getting an Ex Raid Pass and a local example of exactly which gym raids to target over a five-day period. Both avoid “luck” and rely on careful data analyses and projection.

My second Mewtwo.

On a personal note, I managed to accomplish during my second Exclusive Raid what I did not in my first one. For example, I remembered to screen capture my progress.

What I did not anticipate happening was GPS drift occurring one minute before the raid started. One other player and I had to restart our games to reposition ourselves. As I was coordinating the efforts of the group that was with me, I hope that I did not cause too much worry.

I caught my second Mewtwo. It was not as good as my first one, but that is a good first world problem to have!

I also helped an auntie catch a Mewtwo because she was too nervous to do it herself. I showed her the lock-circle technique and how to time the throw of the premier Poké ball. I was hoping that she would eventually learn how to do this herself after a few viewings. (Un)Fortunately, I demonstrated this only once — I caught the Mewtwo in one throw.

Both the uncracking of Niantic’s complex formulae for Ex Raids and how to catch Mewtwo share a common strategy — the scientific method. This is the relentless pursuit of data, testing of hypotheses, rejecting of uninformed hearsay, and retesting of attempts that seemed to provide positive results.

As there is a large number of Pokémon Go players, there is still a mathematical gamble to be selected for an Ex Raid Pass. This is the logical luck of the draw that you cannot control.

What is manageable, however, is everything else — from data analysis of which gyms to hit, to video analysis of catching Mewtwo. Ignore these and you are being wilfully ignorant and relying on dumb luck.

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